Ensemble 1‐Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
Identifieur interne : 002326 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002325; suivant : 002327Ensemble 1‐Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
Auteurs : Jinlun Zhang [États-Unis] ; Mike Steele [États-Unis] ; Ron Lindsay [États-Unis] ; Axel Schweiger [États-Unis] ; James Morison [États-Unis]Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters [ 0094-8276 ] ; 2008-04.
Abstract
Ensemble predictions of arctic sea ice in spring and summer 2008 have been carried out using an ice‐ocean model. The ensemble is constructed by using atmospheric forcing from 2001 to 2007 and the September 2007 ice and ocean conditions estimated by the model. The prediction results show that the record low ice cover and the unusually warm ocean surface waters in summer 2007 lead to a substantial reduction in ice thickness in 2008. Up to 1.2 m ice thickness reduction is predicted in a large area of the Canada Basin in both spring and summer of 2008, leading to extraordinarily thin ice in summer 2008. There is a 50% chance that both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be nearly ice free in September 2008. It is not likely there will be another precipitous decline in arctic sea ice extent such as seen in 2007, unless a new atmospheric forcing regime, significantly different from the recent past, occurs.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033244
Affiliations:
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(État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Geophys. Res. Lett.</title><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2008-04">2008-04</date><biblScope unit="volume">35</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">8</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="/">n/a</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="/">n/a</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></series><idno type="istex">CFD4056B3E43BBCB44ED8C35388C8F97FA82A447</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1029/2008GL033244</idno><idno type="ArticleID">2008GL033244</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Ensemble predictions of arctic sea ice in spring and summer 2008 have been carried out using an ice‐ocean model. The ensemble is constructed by using atmospheric forcing from 2001 to 2007 and the September 2007 ice and ocean conditions estimated by the model. The prediction results show that the record low ice cover and the unusually warm ocean surface waters in summer 2007 lead to a substantial reduction in ice thickness in 2008. Up to 1.2 m ice thickness reduction is predicted in a large area of the Canada Basin in both spring and summer of 2008, leading to extraordinarily thin ice in summer 2008. There is a 50% chance that both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be nearly ice free in September 2008. It is not likely there will be another precipitous decline in arctic sea ice extent such as seen in 2007, unless a new atmospheric forcing regime, significantly different from the recent past, occurs.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Seattle</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Washington (État)"><name sortKey="Zhang, Jinlun" sort="Zhang, Jinlun" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Jinlun" last="Zhang">Jinlun Zhang</name></region><name sortKey="Lindsay, Ron" sort="Lindsay, Ron" uniqKey="Lindsay R" first="Ron" last="Lindsay">Ron Lindsay</name><name sortKey="Morison, James" sort="Morison, James" uniqKey="Morison J" first="James" last="Morison">James Morison</name><name sortKey="Schweiger, Axel" sort="Schweiger, Axel" uniqKey="Schweiger A" first="Axel" last="Schweiger">Axel Schweiger</name><name sortKey="Steele, Mike" sort="Steele, Mike" uniqKey="Steele M" first="Mike" last="Steele">Mike Steele</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Jinlun" sort="Zhang, Jinlun" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Jinlun" last="Zhang">Jinlun Zhang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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